What determines gold prices, and how to forecast market trends.


By | February 28, 2017

For a long time, gold was a synonym for wealth and stability; nevertheless, its price is far from being set in stone. Understanding the many factors of influence will better arm you with knowledge on how to make wiser decisions on the best times to buy or sell. The time has come to take a closer look at the main drivers of gold prices and how market trends can be predicted.


Economic Uncertainty

On the contrary, whenever economies are on the verge of a decline or in turmoil, gold is usually in high demand as a "safe haven." It is for this reason that whenever currencies or stocks are on volatile behavior, manic investors rush to gold to protect their wealth.

 

Inflation and Interest Rates

Generally speaking, high inflation may boost gold prices because of the lesser value in paper currencies. When interest rates increase, on the other hand, it hurts the price of gold as investors flock to interest-generating assets.


Supply and Demand Globally

Low mining supply combined with strong demand for jewelry, technology, and investments jolts the price of gold upwards. Then, there are seasonal trends where festivals in countries like India also fire up the price of gold.


Currency Fluctuations

Gold is quoted in U.S. dollars; therefore, when the dollar weakens, the price of gold goes up, and when it strengthens, as it has now, the price of gold tends to fall.


Geopolitical Tensions

Wars, trade disputes, and political conflicts raise the price of gold, as investors start hedging against the potential financial impact.


How to Predict Gold Market Trends

Watch Economic Indicators

Pay attention to how the inflation rate turns out, what the employment data says, and how the GDP is growing. Usually, the weaker the economic indicators are, the stronger the price of gold.


Follow Central Banks Policies

Central banks are among the largest players in the gold market. Interest rate policies and others affecting their gold reserves may indicate future changes in prices.


Keep an Eye on Historical Trends

Give your attention to historical trends; some cases might give indications of how gold performed during recession or inflationary periods.


Stay Up to Date with Global Flashpoints

News about war action, trade deals, and national elections tends to move the price of gold. Knowledge of such events helps in market expectations.


Apply Technical Analysis

On higher levels of prediction, use moving averages, trend lines, and levels of support/resistance to analyze the charts of the prices of gold


Gold Price Sentiment

Investor attitude is one of the most decisive factors in establishing the price of gold. The forces of fear and greed drive demand for gold; an understanding of market psychology can give you an edge when it comes to being correct about trends.


Because of that, the drivers of the gold price are complex and combine economic, geopolitical, and market-specific influences. Understand these drivers, stay well-informed, and you will be able to better predict trends in the market. Whether buying or selling, strategic timing will help maximize your returns in this dynamic gold market.

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